Posts Tagged ‘recession warning’

Federal Reserve to start buying $60 billion of USA Treasury Bills per month at least through the second quarter of 2020. Some people would call this QE 4:  Quantitative easing:  is a fairly recent “unconventional” (not natural) monetary policy in which a central bank purchases government securities  or other securities with [Continue]

The big banks won’t lend to each because they don’t trust that they would get paid back even 24 hours later, so the Federal Reserve has had to start supplying daily cash up to 75 Billion (with a B) to keep the USA banks afloat. It looks like the financial system will require such extreme [Continue]

The yield spread between the 3 month and 10 year fell below zero, this is not only the first time this has happened in the last 10 years, but more importantly this particular metric has predicted the last seven recessions in the USA. Don’t panic yet–in the past it has taken up to two years [Continue]

As of Friday March 22nd the spread between the 3-month and 10-year USA Treasury notes has INVERTED. Inverted yield curves happen when short-term yields are higher than other longer-term options. Historically in the USA (like better than 9 times out of ten) whenever the 3-month and 10-year yield curve inverts a recession has followed in [Continue]

Warning: Recent Inverted Yield Curve on US Bonds Historically Precedes Recessions Earlier this week (Monday December 3rd, 2018) the yields on the US 3-year and 5-year Treasury and the 2-year and 5-year notes became inverted for the 1st time in 10 years! An inverted yield is defined when the LONGER term debt carries less yield [Continue]