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Posts Tagged ‘recession warning’

Don’t Panic- But This Yield Curve Matters

Don’t Panic- But This Yield Curve Matters

The yield spread between the 3 month and 10 year fell below zero, this is not only the first time this has happened in the last 10 years, but more importantly this particular metric has predicted the last seven recessions in the USA. Don’t panic yet–in the past it has taken up to two years [Continue]

USA Recession Warning Signs Now Worse

USA Recession Warning Signs Now Worse

As of Friday March 22nd the spread between the 3-month and 10-year USA Treasury notes has INVERTED. Inverted yield curves happen when short-term yields are higher than other longer-term options. Historically in the USA (like better than 9 times out of ten) whenever the 3-month and 10-year yield curve inverts a recession has followed in [Continue]

Recession Warning Alarm Bells Start Ringing

Recession Warning Alarm Bells Start Ringing

Warning: Recent Inverted Yield Curve on US Bonds Historically Precedes Recessions Earlier this week (Monday December 3rd, 2018) the yields on the US 3-year and 5-year Treasury and the 2-year and 5-year notes became inverted for the 1st time in 10 years! An inverted yield is defined when the LONGER term debt carries less yield [Continue]